PI · IRAN COST ENGINE · v1
VELATION
DAY 104 · 11 JUN 2026
∂W = W
Σ Gap $ — Cost Nobody Prices
dollarizable vectors
Composite Δ · ∂W=W
how much is illusory
Stress S(t)
1.00
strait closure
SPR Reserve · M bbl
metered draw
Phase / Cliff in
SPR floor
SPR — STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE · MASTER FUEL
drawing 1.74 M bbl/day · 354 M bbl
The reserve funds the suppression. At the operational floor (~300 M bbl) it runs dry and paper crude reverts to the physical price — the cliff.
Global Drivers The five high-leverage master inputs. Everything cascades from here.
Local Drivers Per-vector calibration.
Contested Layer Single-source nodes a powerful party has chosen not to confirm or deny.
Toggle these to see how much of the cascade rests on data that was never confirmed — and how much stands on the confirmed record alone.
dDay cursor
Day 104 · 11 Jun 2026
The read head. Tap or drag the master canvas, or scrub here. Day 1 = 28 Feb 2026 (opening strike); Day 40 = 8 Apr (first ceasefire); the reloading period is where the cost clock did not stop.
Σ Gap — The Cost Nobody Prices
Sum of the dollarizable Gaps. The unpriced vectors are held out of this number by doctrine — the engine never invents a dollar figure.
Composite Δ — ∂W = W
The confidence-weighted divergence across all fifteen vectors. The marginal divergence is the state of the world.
The Duel — δIX vs δXIII
The exit versus the new rail. The de-dollarization ratchet against the tokenized-dollar counter-move. Whichever leads is the live answer to the 10-to-30-year question.
IX · De-dollarization — mBridge rail
XIII · Dollar's counter-move — tokenized Treasuries
Scenarios are stored locally to your session, not shared — so you and Mokai each keep your own configurations.

The universal triad

Every vector is the same three-part object. Nominal — what the system claims. Effective — what stress reveals. Gap — the divergence the conventional frame never prices. The whole instrument is a directed graph of pure functions over a day axis; nothing downstream is stored, everything is recomputed each frame.

The reset taxonomy

The second axis: how each Gap behaves in time. reset — cyclical, accumulates then snaps closed and re-forms from a higher floor. oneway — a ratchet, the Gap only climbs; settled rails do not un-form. capped — real divergence, magnitude honestly withheld pending data, shown with a CAP marker. locked — permanent historical fact, inert to price or settlement.

The colour law

confirmed
live / forward-dated / projected
unconfirmed — contested, single-source

The SPR is the fuel, not a panel

Drawn at R₀ million barrels a day from 354, the reserve falls toward an operational floor near 300. When it arrives, the suppression instrument runs dry and Vector XII's paper crude reverts from $88 to the $150 physical — the cliff. Drag R₀ and the cliff date moves.

The contested layer

Five single-source nodes — F-35 attrition, Hersh's tactical-nuclear review, Chinese refueler tracking, the Asaluyeh intercepts, Bessent's clawback — render in violet. Toggle them to see how much of the cascade rests on data nobody has confirmed, and how much stands on the record alone.

∂W = W

The marginal divergence is the world. The aggregate Gap is not a side effect of the analysis — it is the state being measured. This instrument makes it draggable.

Scenarios

Configurations persist locally through the artifact storage layer. Three are seeded — Base Case, Strait Stays Closed, Deal Holds — and your own saves sit alongside them, private to your session.

PANTHEONIC INDEX · Iran Cost Engine v1 · fifteen vectors · ∂W = W
Nominal = what is claimed  ·  Effective = what stress reveals  ·  Gap = the cost nobody prices