This version supersedes the v1.2 carry. A cross-check of v1.2 against v3 found anchor drift. v1.2 reported current reality without binding each row to a registered v3 claim, left four vectors unscored, carried three inserted rows, and attached the wrong evidence to one vector. v1.3 corrects this. Every row is anchored to a named v3 vector or claim, scored against Day-104 reality, and given a verdict. Vectors VI, VII, VIII and X.C are restored to the record. The fiscal vector is reconciled to v3's own figures rather than to external trackers. The two pending tests are run.
v3 stays as published. This is the calibration layer. The no-backsies rule holds: nothing in v3 is retracted. The verdict set is unchanged: confirmed, converging, revised, diverging, overtaken by events, still in play.
Timeline frame. v3 is anchored to the first ceasefire of 7 April and its central contribution, Vector X.C, reads that ceasefire as a reloading period. The record since is the live test of that reading. The Islamabad talks of 10 April failed. A US naval blockade followed on 13 April. The conflict ran roughly two further months. A second draft surfaces only now. The fifteen-day window the v1.2 carry isolated is a fragment of that test, not the test itself.
| Vector | v3 registered claim | Day-104 status | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| I Kinetic |
Implied Day-40 spend $30 to 40bn; Bilmes floor $350 to 400bn; 850+ Tomahawks; $200bn supplemental transmitted, not approved; FY27 $1.5tn. | Pentagon states $25bn at ~Day 60, a narrower munitions-and-maintenance accounting than v3's operational figure. Independent tracker near $32bn at ~Day 100. FY27 request confirmed at $1.5tn, plus 42 percent. Economy-wide estimates of $630bn to $1tn sit above the Bilmes floor, consistent with it as a floor. | Converging; Bilmes floor and supplemental still in play |
| II Energy |
Futures +55 percent near $113; Dubai physical $166 (19 Mar, record); paper-physical spread, physical prices the real story; 9M bpd supply loss; Oxford $140 scenario into recession, world CPI peak 5.8 percent. | Dubai physical $166 confirmed (Platts, 19 Mar); dated Brent past $140, highest since 2008; futures peak confirmed. Window: futures retrace to near $88 on the draft. In v3's own frame the retracement is paper optimism, not physical normalisation, with mines and idled fields unresolved. | Confirmed; retracement qualified |
| III Infrastructure |
Facility-by-facility record; Ras Laffan trains destroyed; Ras Tanura 550k bpd; Rystad $25bn floor (Day 25). | Confirmed. Repair timelines intact. Inert to the price retracement. | Confirmed, locked |
| IV Reconstruction |
Qatar 17 percent loss, 12.8 mtpa; $20bn/yr; 3 to 5 years; three OEM turbine makers, 2 to 4yr backlogs; construction inflation 12.6 percent; aluminium +23 to 40 percent. | Confirmed structurally. OEM bottleneck unchanged. The reconstruction queue runs regardless of price. | Confirmed, locked |
| V Financial Stress |
Treasuries inverted, 10-yr at 4.46%; bond loss $2.5tn; Apollo gated 5 percent vs 11.2 percent requests; BCRED and Blue Owl pressure; software exposure 40 to 50 percent. | Inversion confirmed. Private credit confirmed and extended: Apollo gated 5 percent of a $25bn fund (45 percent pro-rata); Blackstone faced 7.9% on BCRED and injected $400m to avoid a gate; Ares, Blue Owl, Cliffwater followed. Stress ran into a second quarter and renewed in early June. The AI-disruption driver is confirmed by name. | Confirmed and extended |
| VI Helium / Materials |
Qatar ~33 percent of helium; 45-day buffer started 2 Mar, run 37 days at Day 40; beyond 60 days, measurable semiconductor output reduction; $650bn AI capex at risk. | Supply disruption confirmed: roughly 27 to 38 percent of global helium removed; QatarEnergy export cut of 14 percent, larger via the blockade. Fab exposure confirmed: South Korean fabs rationing; high-capacity drive supply sold out for 2026. Buffer clock long past 60 days. Output-reduction magnitude not cleanly printed in public data. | Confirmed-directional; magnitude pending |
| VII GCC SWFs |
$5tn AUM; $132bn 2025 US allocation at risk; PIF, ADIA, QIA, KIA reviewing deployment; co-investment overlap with the gating private-credit vehicles. | The co-investment overlap is reinforced: the same vehicles named in Vector V gated through Q2. A dedicated sovereign-fund deployment pull is not run in this version. Defensive posture and reviews carried from the v1.1 record. | Partial via overlap; SWF pull pending |
| VIII Demolition Model |
255:1 cost asymmetry; Lockheed THAAD ramp 96 to 400; Russia windfall $84bn to $161bn; Russia collects the margin. | Russia windfall confirmed in direction: oil revenue roughly doubled, Feb near $9.75bn to Mar near $19bn; Urals from $44.59 to $77. Magnitude revised down by Ukrainian strikes on export capacity, a persistent budget shortfall against baseline, and a gold paper-loss near $55bn. Contractor profit structure confirmed. The window's retracement compresses the premium going forward. | Confirmed-directional; magnitude revised down |
| IX De-dollarization |
Deutsche Bank Panda bond 5.5bn RMB (Day 6); coupons 1.95 percent vs 4.4 percent; Saudi petrodollar lapsed; reserve share 71 to 57 percent; petroyuan toll at Hormuz. | The June draft includes release of frozen Iranian funds, sanctions suspension, and a US withdrawal. These cut both ways: re-integration into dollar oil markets against confirmation of the counter-architecture's leverage. A dedicated de-dollar pull is not run in this version. | Still in play, long horizon |
| X / X.C Ceasefire / Reloading |
First ceasefire fragile; gap vast; the ceasefire is a reloading period; the cost clock does not stop; the parties use the pause; resumption is possible. | Confirmed in full. The first ceasefire did not resolve. Talks failed on 10 April, a naval blockade followed on 13 April, and the conflict ran two further months. The current draft is a second starting position with its own cost architecture: mine-clearing, idled-field restart, facility repair. | Confirmed, the strongest vindication |
| XI Human Capital |
Iranian counter-architecture engineers displaced, distributing knowledge to CIPS, mBridge, SPFS and BRICS+. Directional finding certain; quantification deferred; unpriced. | No direct data on Iranian financial-engineer migration is pulled. The Indian Gulf-expatriate exodus that v1.2 attached here is a different phenomenon and is reassigned to the regional and sovereign-fund layer. v3's vector remains as v3 left it. | Unpriced, directionally open |
Each reading pairs v3's registered figure with the Day-104 figure. They are placed side by side and not reconciled.
| Line | v3 figure (Day 40) | Day-104 figure | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operational spend, kinetic | $30 to 40bn | $25bn stated, narrower basis | Converging, definitional gap |
| Independent total with deaths | not in v3 | $32bn, 15 deaths | External, recorded |
| Bilmes structural floor | $350 to 400bn | economy-wide $630bn to $1tn | Still in play, above the floor |
| Pentagon supplemental | $200bn, transmitted | approval status unconfirmed | Still in play |
| FY27 defence request | $1.5tn | $1.5tn, +42% | Confirmed |
The narrow line is an accounting figure measured in tens of billions. The structural line is measured in hundreds of billions to a trillion. The window moves neither toward the other. The distance is the reading.
Three v1.2 rows scored claims v3 did not make and are removed from the calibration. The gold move at minus 28 percent is not a v3 claim; the gold paper-loss survives only inside Vector VIII as part of the Russia windfall reading. The Iran domestic-inflation figures were carried as a standalone v3 number that v3 does not register. The de-escalation premium row read a futures drop as vindication, which is the exact move v3's Vector II method rejects, so it is dissolved into Vector II as a qualified retracement.
Two rows scored the wrong anchor. The production-loss row used a barrel total that v3 does not cite; v3's figure is a 9M bpd flow loss. The GCC row scored a Bahrain currency swap, which belongs to the regional layer, in place of v3's sovereign-wealth disruption claim. The Vector XI row attached Indian-expatriate evidence to a vector about Iranian counter-architecture engineers; the evidence is reassigned.
Re-anchoring changes the unit of account. The Day-89 figure of roughly 78 percent was scored against the 338-item ledger. v1.3 scores at the vector level. Of v3's eleven vectors plus X.C, the structural set is confirmed or confirmed-directional: II, III, IV, V, VI, VIII and X.C, with I converging on its accounting line. The open set is concentrated in the three long-horizon vectors v3 itself flagged as long-duration or unpriced: VII, IX and XI. Expressed at vector level, the estimated confirmed-or-converging share is roughly 83 to 86 percent, marked estimated, with the open set being exactly the vectors that resolve on a multi-year horizon rather than within the window. The strongest single result is X.C, which the intervening record vindicates and which the v1.2 carry omitted.
Source document: True Cost of the Iran War, Version 3.0, Day 40, 8 April 2026.
Energy: Brent and WTI settlement series; Dubai physical peak per Platts, 19 March; dated Brent and futures highs; window retracement, 11 and 12 June. Supply characterisation: International Energy Agency.
Helium and semiconductors: industry and trade reporting on Ras Laffan offline volumes, QatarEnergy export reduction, South Korean fab rationing, and high-capacity drive allocation.
Russia: oil and gas revenue series and Urals pricing; analyst commentary on the windfall, the export-capacity strikes, and the gold paper-loss.
Private credit: redemption and gating disclosures across the major non-traded vehicles, Q1 and into Q2 2026.
Fiscal: Pentagon testimony; independent conflict-cost tracker; FY27 defence request; economists' economy-wide estimates.
Diplomatic state: regional agency reporting on the draft terms; mediation by the Government of Pakistan; the failed Islamabad talks; the naval blockade.
Held by reference: PI-MEMO-2026-RETRO-001; PI-MEMO-2026-RETRO-002 v1.0 to v1.2.